Fear Factor

There are several contrarian indicators that are studied to help professional traders determine if the market is reaching "tops" or "bottoms". These indicators aren't foolproof or timely, but are watched nonetheless. One of these indicators is the Volatility Index (aka "The Vix"), which is a measurement of fear in the marketplace. For eternity the VIX traded within a range from (approx) 10 to 45. So a couple of weeks ago, when I was talking to my sister I mentioned to her that The Vix was approaching the top part of it's range and therefore would be expected to rollover....meaning Fear would come down and the market should go bullish (even if only for a period of time).

How wrong I was...
So then I analyzed the chart further. Technical analysis teaches us that patterns, when broken, tend to have certain results. There are all sorts of patterns on stock charts: ascending triangles, symmetrical triangles, head and shoulders, double-bottoms, and so on. When there is a range, such as on the Vix, then the target price would be equal to the height of the range. But, I thought "No way is the Vix going to 80!". Here's the calculation: 45-10 = 35 (the height of the range); 35+45 (the breakout point) = 80.
And I repeat myself...how wrong I was...the Vix not only closed at $80.06 the other day, but just about touched $90.

So, now what? Who knows...I'm no longer trying to guess what the market is going to do! But, again, our education has taught us that what was once prior resistance ($45 on the Vix) may now act as support. All we know for sure is that this is a different market we're in. There are a lot of unknowns in our economy and until after the election (when one of the unknowns is removed) I'm not sure if the market will do too much.

Mt Dora Bike Festival

It's been two years since we've gone to the Mt Dora Bike Festival. This family weekend event is held every October and offers riders choices of bike ride lengths and difficulties. We've probably been there five times or so over the years (see our 2006 post), but this was the first time we had a group to ride with. It's even more fun with a group. There were about twelve of us that went up. We're all different levels and speeds, so it was nice to have friends to ride with even if we didn't see each other the whole time. We always got together pre- and post-rides.

Because we were with some strong riders, we ended up challenging ourselves with two rides that we hadn't attempted in prior years. On Saturday we tackled our first Metric Century ride - which ended up becoming 67 miles because of a missed turn near the finish line! I'll have to admit that I was staring at my emergency bracelet at that point - it has the SAG wagon phone number on it. I was strongly considering it (calling for a pickup) until I realized that we hadn't gone that far off course.

Sunday we did the 40-mile Assault on Sugarloaf Mountain. This area of Florida does indeed have hills, which is why we love this bike festival so much. The scenery is so unique to South Florida: trees, pastures, horses, cows, lakes, and lakes, and lakes...oh, and the hills! So I felt great after successfully conquering Sugarloaf...but then a few miles later I had to bike up The Wall, which was like hitting "the wall". I got up it, but it sapped the rest of my energy and I whimpered the rest of the way home. Funny thing though, Dorota didn't even realize that we encountered "The Wall" - that's how strong some of our friends are. Boy I was envious of her that day! Perhaps this is the encouragement I need to start riding more?

My favorite part about riding these hills are the downhills. Thrill Hill and another unnamed hill after Sugarloaf were awesome. My max speed was 39.8 mph. I might've broken forty if I didn't have to brake to keep a safe distance from Andy. When you're going that fast, all it might take is a pebble to mess up your day. But it is soooo much fun. So much better than the crawl uphill!

If you're ever in Central Florida in October, keep this bike fest in mind...

Achmed the Dead Terrorst

We saw this comedian, Jeff Dunham, on TV recently. Ever since, when I do something to irk Andy, he responds with "I keel you!"

Watch and laugh. My apologies to any terrorists who might not find this skit humorous!

Jonathon Dickinson, Hobe Sound, FL

We made a promise that we would get our RV out more often. This is for the health of the RV, besides being good for our own mental state. So this past weekend we decided on a quick adventure up to Jonathon Dickinson State Park. It's only about a 1 1/2 hour drive from here which is a perfect driving distance for a short getaway. We took all of our toys because the State Park offers mountain biking and kayaking, and we had hoped to road bike along Jupiter Island.

The last time we were here was in 2006 right after a prescribed burn had gotten out of control. Oddly enough, they had another prescribed burn several weeks ago. But this one stayed controlled. It's just a little eerie being in a blackened forest. The lime green of new Saw Palmetto leaves adds color to the area. The burn encompassed the area around River Campground. We had never stayed in River Campground before, so we chose this one over Pine Grove Campground on this visit. It was almost full (and with lots of tenters), whereas Pine Grove was almost empty. In hindsight, we would probably have been more comfortable in Pine Grove.

We walked some of the trails along the river one night. I just loved the roots on this tree:
Eventhough the weather turned against us, we were able to squeeze in a mountain bike ride on Saturday. We rode the three miles from camp to Camp Murphy (the trailhead) on paved trails or the road.It's been at least a year since we last went mountain biking, so it took a little while to get comfortable again on trails. But the trails were in good shape. Recent rains had firmed up the sandy areas, and Club Scrub has added lots of man-made devices to make it easier to maneuver the soft spots. Mulch, wooden bridges, and plastic netting are just some of the items added to the trails to help when riding in this white pixie dust. We were just getting comfortable on our bikes, when we came upon a lake that had overflowed it's banks burying the trail under water. We tried to paddle-pedal through it - the water was up to mid-shin and every rotation of our pedals sounded like a slap of a paddle - but then Andy dropped as deep as mid-thigh when we aborted the trail. Actually, there's no leaving the trail without a machete, so we had to turn around and go back. That's when things got interesting...we got lost! Ha! We could see civilization, but we couldn't agree on which trail would take us home. After several attempts, and recognizing the same landmarks over and over, we finally escaped our maze. Oh, and did I forget to mention that it had started to rain? And, Andy did an endo (flip over the front wheel)right into a Saw Palmetto? If you're not familiar with our Saw Palmettos - they are large palms with toothy edges on each frond that can cut you like...well, a saw. He'll survive - he's just getting funny looks from our neighbors in the condo because of all of the cuts on his legs. I know you'll think we're crazy, but we had a great time!

Our wildlife sighting for the weekend included: several snakes, frogs, our normal water birds, a deer, and a barred owl. The owl was great to see and watch for awhile. Big, yet soooo quiet in flight.

We took a drive along Jupiter Island (instead of road biking in the rain) and stopped at Coral Cove Park. It has similar rock outcroppings (ancient reef) along the beach that Blowing Rocks Preserve has. This beach also had lots of shells, too. It was a nice distraction, even in the rain.

Unfortunately, we did have to cut our trip a little short and leave early on Sunday. We discovered that Andy is now allergic to the RV. On our last trip, I had washed all the fabrics I could, beat the cushions, wiped down the walls, etc. I had hoped that would've done the trick. So my next attempt will be steam cleaning the carpet. There's no visible evidence of mold or mildew, but that is the suspect. If anyone has any ideas or suggestions to add, please do!